Bayesian hierarchical model of oscillatory cortisol response during drug intervention

F. Held, C. Ekstrand, E. Hoppe, M. Cvijovic, J. Gabrielsson, M. Jirstrand. PAGE 27 (2018) Abstr 8637. Montreux, Switzerland, May 2018.


Oscillating biomarker response-time courses challenge modelling of drug intervention. A periodically recurring pattern is typically seen for the stress hormone cortisol. This pattern can be captured by mechanism-based turnover models. Bayesian hierarchical modelling allows for full quantification of parameter uncertainty while also capturing the population aspects typical to nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Inter-occasion variability (IOV) is incorporated in addition to inter-individual variability (IIV). Finally, the adjusted model is used to predict specificity of a clinical test.


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